The collapse of the Kinangop Wind Park was not simply a project failure, it was a warning about the hidden costs of poorly structured government guarantees. What began as a flagship renewable energy investment instead exposed how contingent liabilities, weak project preparation and misallocated risk can undermine both investor confidence and public finances. As Kenya looks to scale renewable energy under tight fiscal constraints, the lessons from Kinangop are impossible to ignore.

Kenya’s renewable energy ambitions depend on mobilising private capital at scale, yet rising public debt has made reliance on broad government guarantees increasingly risky. As electricity demand grows and fiscal space tightens, the country must rethink how political and offtake risks are allocated. This piece explores why sovereign guarantees create hidden liabilities and how market-based de-risking tools can unlock investment while safeguarding public finances.